JOHANNESBURG, Thursday 8 October 2026 — Johannesburg has experienced more changes of municipal administration than almost any other hung council since the 2021 local government elections, according to new research released less than a month before South Africans return to the polls.
The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection released its 2026 Coalitions Barometer on Wednesday, examining the performance and stability of coalition governments across 80 municipalities.
The research found that Johannesburg and Karoo Hoogland in the Northern Cape had each experienced six administrations during the period under review.
The findings highlight the challenges facing political parties as they prepare for another election that could produce numerous councils without outright majorities.
Metropolitan coalitions face greater instability
The report examined 175 municipal administrations established in municipalities that experienced hung councils after the 2021 elections.
Of the 80 municipalities studied, 46 had experienced more than one administration.
The research found that metropolitan coalition governments were particularly vulnerable to collapse.
Nine of the 19 metropolitan administrations included in the statistical analysis had collapsed, representing approximately 47%.
The corresponding figure for administrations outside the metros was approximately 34%.
Metropolitan administrations also had shorter lifespans.
The median metropolitan administration lasted 338 days, compared with 735 days for administrations elsewhere.
The report found that metropolitan status was associated with approximately twice the risk of coalition collapse.
Coalition changes do not necessarily mean government collapse
The researchers distinguished between changes in coalition composition and the complete collapse of an administration.
Some governments survived by changing coalition partners while retaining the same principal governing party.
Others collapsed when the largest party in the governing arrangement lost office.
The distinction is important because political disagreements, changes in mayoral leadership and coalition negotiations do not always produce a complete change in the governing administration.
The report also found that minority governments were generally less stable than governments supported by a council majority.
However, some minority administrations survived for extended periods where opposition parties remained divided or outside parties provided support without formally joining government.
Audit findings challenge assumptions about instability
One of the report’s findings concerns the relationship between coalition instability and municipal financial administration.
Researchers compared coalition changes with municipal audit outcomes and found no statistically reliable relationship between the number of coalition collapses and the quality of audit outcomes.
The finding challenges the assumption that repeated political changes necessarily produce worse financial audit results.
However, the institute cautioned that the result did not establish that coalition instability had no effect on service delivery or municipal governance.
Audit outcomes measure financial reporting and compliance and do not capture every aspect of municipal performance.
The researchers said further analysis would be required to establish how political instability affects broader administrative capacity.
ANC and DA continue competing locally despite GNU
The report also examined the relationship between national coalition politics and municipal government.
It found that cooperation between the ANC and DA in the national Government of National Unity had not fundamentally changed their competitive relationship in local councils.
The parties continued to oppose one another in several municipalities despite sharing responsibility for national government.
The research also highlighted the EFF’s increasing cooperation with ANC-led municipal administrations and the ability of smaller parties to influence coalition arrangements.
The institute warned that continued fragmentation of voter support could produce more hung councils after the 4 November election.
It recommended clearer coalition agreements, stronger cooperation between parties and greater transparency about the terms under which municipal governments are formed.
The findings provide new evidence for voters and political parties as coalition negotiations approach in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and other closely contested municipalities.
