Article updated: 12 October 2026 — The full eNCA/MarkData polling results for Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay have now been released. A breakdown of party support, including the MK Party, EFF, ActionSA and other smaller parties, has been added at the bottom of this article.
JOHANNESBURG, Sunday 11 October 2026 — The Democratic Alliance (DA) and African National Congress (ANC) are running closely in Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay ahead of the 4 November local government elections, according to new polling figures published on Sunday.
The eNCA/MarkData survey places the DA marginally ahead of the ANC in both metropolitan municipalities, although the differences fall within the survey’s margins of error.
The findings suggest that neither party has established a statistically clear lead in the two metros, where coalition arrangements could play an important role in determining who governs after the elections.
DA and ANC separated by narrow margins
In Nelson Mandela Bay, the survey places DA support at 37.7%, compared with 37.4% for the ANC.
The difference is just 0.3 percentage points.
In Ekurhuleni, the DA records 31.2% support, while the ANC stands at 29.4%, a difference of 1.8 percentage points.
The figures were first reported by the Sunday Times ahead of eNCA’s scheduled release of detailed results later on Sunday.
Both differences fall within the reported margins of error, meaning the poll does not establish that either party is definitively ahead.
The results nevertheless indicate closely contested elections in municipalities where no party can assume that it will secure outright control.
Survey covers six major metropolitan municipalities
The polling was conducted by MarkData on behalf of eNCA between 10 August and 14 September 2026.
Researchers interviewed 6,113 registered voters who indicated that they intended to vote in the November elections.
The survey covered Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay and Cape Town.
Approximately 1,000 respondents were interviewed in each metropolitan municipality.
MarkData used a combination of face-to-face and telephone interviews, with respondents interviewed in their preferred languages.
The survey’s reported margin of error is 3.07 percentage points in Ekurhuleni and 3.11 percentage points in Nelson Mandela Bay, at a 95% confidence level.
Researchers said the results were weighted using population estimates and Electoral Commission registration information.
Coalition negotiations could determine municipal control
The narrow differences between the ANC and DA are particularly important because metropolitan councils are elected through a system combining ward and proportional representation seats.
A party does not necessarily need to finish first in the popular vote to participate in a governing coalition.
Where no party secures a majority of council seats, negotiations between parties can determine the election of the mayor, speaker and other municipal office-bearers.
Ekurhuleni has experienced changes in political leadership and coalition arrangements during the current municipal term.
Nelson Mandela Bay has also experienced periods of political instability involving competing parties and coalition agreements.
The latest polling suggests that smaller parties could remain influential in determining governing arrangements after the election.
However, the survey does not establish which coalition agreements, if any, will emerge.
Smaller parties remain important
The Sunday Times reported that the broader MarkData survey indicates increased potential support for ActionSA compared with its performance in the 2021 municipal elections.
The research also points to stronger support for the Economic Freedom Fighters among younger voters in several metropolitan municipalities.
The MK Party is identified as a significant political force in Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg and eThekwini.
However, detailed party-by-party figures for the first two metros had not yet been publicly released by eNCA at the time of the initial report.
Those figures will be important in assessing the possible distribution of council seats and the influence of smaller parties.
Further polling results expected
eNCA is scheduled to release the detailed Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay findings on Sunday.
Results for Tshwane and eThekwini are expected on 18 October, followed by Johannesburg and Cape Town on 25 October.
The broadcaster also plans to publish additional findings concerning voter preferences, political leadership and potential coalition partners.
The results will provide further information about the political landscape as parties enter the final weeks of campaigning.
Opinion polls measure voting intentions at the time of the survey and do not determine election outcomes.
Turnout, changes in voter preferences and developments during the remaining campaign period could affect the final results.
With voting scheduled for 4 November, the latest findings indicate that the contests for Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay remain closely balanced.
UPDATE | 12 October 2026: Full eNCA/MarkData polling results released
Following the initial publication of this article, eNCA released the detailed MarkData polling results for Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay, providing a clearer picture of support for smaller political parties ahead of the 4 November local government elections.
The results confirm the narrow differences between the Democratic Alliance (DA) and African National Congress (ANC), while highlighting the potential influence of other parties in post-election coalition negotiations.
Full party support figures
| Political Party | Ekurhuleni | Nelson Mandela Bay |
|---|---|---|
| DA | 31.2% | 37.7% |
| ANC | 29.4% | 37.4% |
| MK Party | 11.5% | 3.2% |
| EFF | 9.2% | 8.0% |
| ActionSA | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| Freedom Front Plus | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Patriotic Alliance | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| IFP | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| ACDP | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Unite for Change | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| Al Jama-ah | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| National Coloured Congress | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Other parties | 0.2% | 0.7% |
Source: eNCA/MarkData election survey, released 11 October 2026. Figures are rounded.
Smaller parties could influence coalition outcomes
In Ekurhuleni, the MK Party emerges as the third-largest party with 11.5% support, followed by the EFF at 9.2% and ActionSA at 6.1%.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, the EFF holds third place with 8%, followed by the Patriotic Alliance at 4%, ActionSA at 3.4% and the MK Party at 3.2%.
The results suggest that smaller parties could play an important role in determining future municipal administrations if neither the DA nor ANC secures an outright majority.
The survey also found that 67.5% of respondents in Ekurhuleni and 51.1% in Nelson Mandela Bay primarily blamed the ANC for poor municipal service delivery.
Despite the DA’s marginal lead in both municipalities, the differences remain within the survey’s reported margins of error.
With the local government elections scheduled for 4 November, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout, changing political preferences and the distribution of council seats.
