JOHANNESBURG, Monday 19 October 2026 — The Democratic Alliance (DA) is leading the African National Congress (ANC) in Johannesburg and Tshwane, while the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) holds a substantial lead in eThekwini, according to new polling released on Monday ahead of South Africa’s 4 November local government elections.
The survey, conducted by Victory Research for the Social Research Foundation (SRF) in conjunction with The Common Sense, places the ANC at 32% nationally, followed by the DA at 26%, the MK Party at 12% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 8%.
The results suggest that several major metropolitan municipalities could emerge from the elections without a party holding an outright majority.
The polling was conducted between 18 September and 12 October among 3,100 registered voters.
DA leads Johannesburg on 36%
In Johannesburg, the DA received 36% support among surveyed voters.
The ANC followed on 22%, with the MK Party at 11%, ActionSA at 9% and the EFF at 6%.
The results place the DA 14 percentage points ahead of the ANC.
However, the party remains well below the 50% threshold required for an outright majority.
The figures suggest that coalition negotiations could be necessary after the elections if the results are reflected in the composition of the new council.
Johannesburg has experienced repeated changes in political leadership and governing arrangements since the 2021 municipal elections.
The latest polling comes as the DA campaigns under mayoral candidate Helen Zille, while ActionSA is fielding its president, Herman Mashaba.
The ANC is also contesting the city as it seeks to retain influence over the metropolitan government.
Tshwane race remains closely contested
The survey places the DA ahead in Tshwane with 32% support.
The ANC follows on 26%, while ActionSA has 12%.
The Freedom Front Plus and EFF each received 7%, with the MK Party on 4%.
The results suggest that no single party is currently approaching an outright majority in the capital.
They also indicate that the DA and Freedom Front Plus would collectively hold 39% support, below the level required to govern without additional partners.
The findings differ from earlier SRF polling, which placed the DA at 45% and the ANC at 42% in Tshwane during February and March.
ActionSA’s support has increased from 5% in that earlier survey to 12% in the latest results.
The shifts suggest a changing electoral environment, although polling differences should not automatically be interpreted as changes that will be replicated on election day.
Tshwane is currently governed by an ActionSA-led coalition, with Mayor Nasiphi Moya seeking another term.
MK Party leads eThekwini
The MK Party received 43% support in eThekwini, placing it ahead of the DA on 28%.
The ANC followed on 13%, with the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 7% and the EFF at 3%.
The results indicate a substantial change from the 2021 municipal elections, when the ANC received approximately 42% of the vote in the municipality.
The MK Party did not contest the 2021 local government elections.
Its emergence has substantially altered the political environment in KwaZulu-Natal, where it became a major electoral force during the 2024 national and provincial elections.
The latest figures suggest the MK Party could emerge as the largest party in eThekwini without securing an outright majority.
That outcome would leave coalition negotiations central to the formation of the next municipal government.
The ANC’s reported 13% support would represent a major decline from its previous electoral position if replicated at the ballot box.
ANC remains largest party nationally
At national level, the survey places the ANC on 32%.
The DA follows on 26%, the MK Party on 12% and the EFF on 8%.
The ANC’s figure matches the lowest level recorded in the SRF’s polling series, according to The Common Sense.
The national findings are an indicator of political support among surveyed registered voters and should not be treated as a direct forecast of municipal council seats.
Local government elections involve ward and proportional representation contests, meaning results can differ substantially between municipalities.
Voter turnout and the distribution of support across wards will also affect the eventual composition of councils.
Poll finds support for ANC-DA coalition arrangements
The broader survey also examined attitudes towards coalition government.
According to the findings, 68% of surveyed voters supported the ANC and DA governing together in municipalities where neither party secured a majority but the two could form one.
Support for such arrangements was recorded across several demographic groups.
The result suggests that cooperation between the country’s two largest parties may have broader public acceptance than some political disagreements between their leadership structures would indicate.
However, the survey does not establish that either party will enter such agreements after the elections.
Coalition arrangements remain subject to election results and negotiations between political parties.
Survey methodology and limitations
The survey was conducted by Victory Research using computer-assisted telephone interviews.
Respondents were screened for voter registration, and the sample was weighted to reflect demographic characteristics of the registered voter population.
Fieldwork took place from 18 September to 12 October 2026, with 3,100 respondents included in the overall survey.
The published methodology does not clearly specify the individual sample sizes or margins of error for each metropolitan municipality.
The figures should therefore be interpreted as estimates of voter preferences during the survey period rather than definitive predictions.
Different polling organisations may also produce different results because of differences in sampling, weighting, turnout assumptions and fieldwork periods.
Coalition negotiations likely to shape election outcome
The findings add to evidence from other recent surveys that several metropolitan municipalities face competitive elections.
Johannesburg, Tshwane and eThekwini are among the councils where the absence of an outright majority could require negotiations between multiple parties.
The latest survey places the DA ahead in two of those municipalities and the MK Party ahead in the third.
However, the final balance of power will depend on the votes cast on 4 November and the allocation of council seats.
Political parties will have to translate their electoral support into workable governing arrangements if no single party secures a majority.
